Bayse lets you trade Yes or No on where OpenAI and Anthropic will close on their first day of public trading. A Yes share pays ₦100 if your chosen outcome happens, and holding one gives you no ownership in either company.
Anthropic is expected to list in mid-November, according to Reuters. OpenAI is raising money at a valuation above $1.4 trillion, and reports describe its own IPO as further out.
If you want a fuller picture of how trading these two markets plays out, our guide to guide to making a prediction on Bayse is a good next stop. Or open an account with Bayse Markets to start trading today.
Key Takeaways
- Bayse lists three IPO markets: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap, OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap, and OpenAI’s IPO valuation.
- Each winning share pays ₦100. A Yes share bought at ₦40 returns ₦100 if the outcome happens.
- The Anthropic market settles on the first-day closing market cap. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2027, it resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”.
- Reuters reported on October 19, 2026 that OpenAI is seeking about $30 billion at a valuation above $1.4 trillion.
Why Are OpenAI and Anthropic Being Compared Right Now?
Reuters reported on October 19, 2026 that OpenAI is racing to secure roughly $30 billion in investor commitments before Anthropic’s expected public debut in mid-November. The round could value OpenAI at over $1.4 trillion.
The timing matters because Anthropic’s IPO filings will show its financials. Reuters sources said OpenAI wants to finish raising before investors can compare the two companies side by side.
Anthropic’s own number is under debate.
Reportedly, some investors want a debut valuation closer to $1.5 trillion, against the $2 trillion the company had sought, after third-quarter results came in below expectations. Anthropic’s last private round, closed in late May, valued it at $965 billion.
OpenAI’s last confirmed round was in March at $852 billion.
What Can You Trade on Bayse?
Bayse currently lists three markets for these two companies. Open each one and read its rules before you trade.
| Market | What it measures |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap? | Anthropic’s market capitalization at the close of its first trading day, split into ranges such as $1.5 to $1.75 trillion and $1.75 to $2.0 trillion. |
| OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap? | OpenAI’s first-day closing market capitalisation, split into ranges, with an outcome for no IPO by the stated deadline. |
| What will OpenAI’s IPO valuation be? | The valuation OpenAI reaches at its public offering. |
Find all three on the Bayse Technology page.
How Does a Yes Share Pay Out?
Every share on Bayse is priced between ₦0 and ₦100, and each winning share pays ₦100. The price reflects what other traders currently think is the chance of that outcome.
Here is a hypothetical example. It is not a live Bayse price.
- You think Anthropic will close between $1.75 and $2.0 trillion. The Yes share for that range costs ₦40.
- You buy 20 Yes shares for ₦800.
- If that range is correct, you collect 20 x ₦100 = ₦2,000. Your profit is ₦1,200.
- If another range wins, your ₦800 is lost.
You can also sell before the market resolves, if there is enough trading activity. If the Yes price rises from ₦40 to ₦55, selling 20 shares returns ₦1,100, a ₦300 gain before any applicable charges.
What Is the Difference Between Closing Market Cap and IPO Valuation?
The IPO valuation is the value implied by the price at which shares are first offered. The closing market cap is the first-day closing share price multiplied by total shares outstanding. A stock that jumps or drops on day one will produce two different numbers.
Check which one your market uses. A trader who reads “valuation” and “closing market cap” as the same thing can pick the wrong range.
How Is the Anthropic Market Resolved?
The Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap market resolves on Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. Bayse takes the figure from the primary exchange’s official listing page and uses another reliable source if that figure is not shown.
Three rules decide edge cases:
- If the value falls exactly between two ranges, the market resolves to the higher range.
- If the first session is cut short, for example by a circuit breaker, the official closing price of the shortened session is used.
- If no IPO happens by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”.
Payouts are processed within 4 to 12 hours after the market closes, once Bayse confirms the result.
Is Trading an IPO Market the Same as Buying the Stock?
No. On Bayse you take a position on a defined outcome, such as a market cap range. You do not hold OpenAI or Anthropic shares, and you cannot buy them through these markets.
A stock buyer gains if the price rises over any period. A Bayse trader gains only if the specific outcome on the market happens, and loses the amount staked if it does not.
What Should You Check Before You Trade?
- The deadline. Anthropic’s market runs to the end of 2027. A delayed listing keeps the market open.
- The reported valuation range. Anthropic’s debate sits between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, so ranges outside that band depend on a large surprise.
- Revenue growth. Reuters tied the lower valuation talk to slower third-quarter results.
- Market conditions. Reuters described a stalled IPO pipeline, which can delay or cut a listing.
- Price. A ₦90 Yes share has a small upside if right, and a ₦10 share costs less but wins less often.
How Do You Trade These Markets?
- Open the Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap market on Bayse.
- Read the rules, the outcome ranges and the closing date.
- Pick Yes or No on the range you want. Trading starts from ₦100.
- Check the share count, cost and possible loss, then confirm.
- Hold until resolution or sell earlier if the price moves.
For basics on pricing and payouts, read the Bayse FAQ.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I buy OpenAI or Anthropic shares on Bayse?
No. Bayse offers prediction markets on outcomes. A position on an IPO market does not give you ownership of either company.
How much does a winning share pay on Bayse?
Each winning share pays ₦100. Your profit is ₦100 minus the price you paid per share, multiplied by your share count.
Can I lose money on the OpenAI and Anthropic markets?
Yes. If your outcome does not happen, you lose the amount you staked. Selling below your purchase price also produces a loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.
What happens if Anthropic or OpenAI never goes public?
It depends on the market’s rules. The Anthropic market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027” if no listing happens by that date. Read the deadline on each market before you trade.
Can I sell before the IPO happens?
You may be able to, depending on trading activity in that market. The amount you receive depends on the share price when you sell.
Is Bayse licensed?
Bayse describes itself as the first prediction market licensed by the Federation of State Gaming Regulators of Nigeria. You must be 18 or older, and access may be limited in some locations.
Trade the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO on Bayse
The Anthropic listing is expected within weeks, and OpenAI’s valuation talks are moving at the same time. Open the markets, read the rules, and take the side you can defend.
Explore the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO markets on Bayse
Prediction markets involve financial risk. Prices are set by trading activity and are not forecasts you can rely on. Bayse does not provide investment advice.