Key Takeaways
- Obafemi Hamzat (APC) is the clear favourite, priced at 75% on Bayse.
- Funso Doherty (NDC) sits at 10% and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (ADC) at 7%.
- The APC won 19 of 20 local governments in 2023.
- The opposition is split across several parties, which helps the APC.
- Rhodes-Vivour has real support. He polled 312,329 votes in 2023.
- The governorship election is scheduled for 6 February 2027, three weeks after the presidential vote.
Obafemi Hamzat of the APC is the favourite to win the 2027 Lagos governorship election. The Bayse market gave him a 75% chance on 9 November 2026. Funso Doherty of the NDC sat at 10%. Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour of the ADC sat at 7%.
The election holds on 6 February 2027. Nothing is settled until INEC declares a result. This guide covers who is running, why Hamzat leads, and where the opposition could surprise people. You can follow every live race on the 2027 elections hub on Bayse Markets.
The Top Four Governorship Candidates
INEC’s final list has 17 governorship candidates for Lagos, but only four have drawn the most attention.
| Candidate | Party | Background |
| Obafemi Hamzat | APC | Current deputy governor, presented by Governor Sanwo-Olu as the party’s ticket |
| Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour | ADC | Finished second in 2023 under the Labour Party |
| Funso Doherty | NDC | Ran in 2023 under the ADC, now with the Nigeria Democratic Congress |
| Adedeji “Deji” Doherty | PDP | The party’s standard-bearer, a different person from Funso Doherty |
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is finishing his final term, leaving the seat open.
Why Hamzat is the Favourite
There are four things working for him:
The party machine. The APC has held Lagos since 1999. Several rivals stepped down for Hamzat at the APC primary, which avoided a messy internal fight.
Presidential backing. President Tinubu has endorsed him, and in Lagos, that carries huge weight.
Continuity. He is the sitting deputy governor. So, voters get a known name and an unbroken administration.
The 2023 baseline. Sanwo-Olu, the current sitting governor, won 19 of 20 local governments, the strongest recent result for the party.
Why the Opposition Could Be a Challenge
Let’s start with what the opposition did last time. In 2023, Rhodes-Vivour took 312,329 votes, making him the first opposition candidate in years to seriously threaten the APC at the governorship level.
Now, let’s move to the problem: he rode a wave. Peter Obi’s presidential campaign lifted the Labour Party across Lagos in 2023. That wave is gone, and Rhodes-Vivour now runs under the ADC. The question now is whether he can turn a national movement into a Lagos one.
Then there is the split. Add up the 2023 Labour and PDP votes, and you get over 374,000. Today, the opposition is spread across the ADC, NDC and PDP. And the disputes inside the NDC over its primary have not helped.
What could help the challengers is the issues. At recent debates, they went after the government’s record on housing, transport and waste. Rhodes-Vivour pledged 100,000 homes over four years while Funso Doherty pledged 150,000 units. These are real pressure points in a city where rent and commutes dominate daily life.
Rhodes-Vivour has also questioned Hamzat’s eligibility over an alleged oath of allegiance to the United States, which remains a campaign allegation.
Check the odds of the Lagos Election market on Bayse here.
The 2023 Numbers and What They Tell us
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| Babajide Sanwo-Olu | APC | 762,134 |
| Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour | LP | 312,329 |
| Olajide “Jandor” Adediran | PDP | 62,449 |
Source: TheCable.
This showed us that of 1,155,678 valid votes, the APC took about two-thirds. The gap was 449,805 votes, which is a big hill. In the upcoming election, the opposition needs a very different electorate, or a very different turnout, to close it.
How a Winner is Decided
Under the constitution, a governorship winner needs the most votes. The winner must also score at least 25% in two-thirds of the state’s local governments. Lagos has 20, so that means 14.
This favours broad coverage. A candidate who piles up votes in a few areas can still fall short.
What a 75% Price Really Says
Seventy-five percent is high, but it is not 100.
It means the crowd sees Hamzat winning roughly three times in four. To put it another way, they still see a one-in-four chance that someone else does. For a state the APC has never lost, that gap may sound generous. Others say it is right, given how often Nigerian races surprise people.
Also note the market’s size. At the 9 November snapshot above, it had 122 trades and about ₦1.1M in volume. Hamzat drew 118 of them. The market also follows only INEC’s declaration. A later tribunal ruling does not change how it settles.
What Could Change the Picture
- The 16 January presidential vote. Lagos results come three weeks before the governorship poll.
- Opposition deals. Any candidate stepping aside could consolidate votes.
- Turnout. 2023 turnout in Lagos was low relative to the number of registered voters. A shift would help challengers.
- Court action. Watch the eligibility claim and the timetable lawsuits.
- Campaign missteps. Debates and town halls are still running; someone might slip.
FAQs
Who is the favourite to win the 2027 Lagos governorship election?
Obafemi Hamzat of the APC. The Bayse market priced him at 75% on 9 November 2026.
Who are the main candidates?
Hamzat (APC), Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (ADC), Funso Doherty (NDC) and Adedeji Doherty (PDP). Seventeen candidates are on INEC’s list.
When is the election?
INEC’s revised timetable fixes 6 February 2027, following the presidential election on 16 January 2027.
Can the opposition win Lagos?
It is possible, though hard. The APC won 19 of 20 local governments in 2023. A united opposition and higher turnout would be the opposition’s best route.
How is the winner of a Lagos governorship election chosen?
The candidate with the most votes, provided they also reach 25% in at least two-thirds of the local governments.
Where can I see current odds?
On the Lagos governorship market on Bayse. Prices update as people trade.
Conclusion
Hamzat has the machine, the endorsement and the 2023 record. The challengers have the issues and a split they must somehow fix. The market sits in between, and it moves as new facts arrive.
You may think 75% is too high or you may think it is too low. Either way, you can act on it. Take your side on the Lagos governorship market.
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