Every Nigerian already has a prediction about the 2027 elections. It gets argued over in family WhatsApp groups, on X, in Facebook comments, and in the barber’s shop, and then it disappears when the conversation moves on.
Bayse Markets, a Nigerian prediction market, gives those predictions a home where they carry a price and a payout if you turn out to be right.
The Biggest Election Calendar in Years
INEC’s revised timetable starts with the presidential vote on 16 January 2027, and governorship elections follow on 6 February. Twenty-eight states will choose governors, since the eight other states hold their polls in different years. Voters will also fill seats in the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the State Houses of Assembly.
Bayse has built an Election Hub that covers all of these races in one place, so you can follow the contests that matter to you and act on what you believe.
What is Bayse?
Bayse is a Nigerian-built platform, formerly known as Gowagr, where you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Elections are one category, alongside sports, finance, crypto, politics, entertainment, and culture. You deposit and withdraw in naira, and positions start from as little as ₦100.
How Prediction Markets Work on Bayse
Each market asks a question that can only be answered Yes or No. The price of a Yes share tells you how likely the crowd thinks that outcome is.
The presidential market shows the idea well. On 11 November, Bola Tinubu’s Yes share sat at around ₦70, which means traders gave him roughly a 70% chance. If you believe he will be declared the winner, you buy Yes. If you doubt him, you buy No, which pays out when any other candidate is declared. That is how you can trade against a candidate you are not sure about, even if you have no particular favourite to back.
Prices move as people trade, so the numbers keep changing with the news. You can hold your position until the result, or sell earlier if the price moves in your favour. Every election market settles on INEC’s official declaration of results.
What You Can Trade on Bayse
The markets run from the national level down to your own state and constituency.
- The presidential election, with every candidate priced separately.
- Governorship elections in the 28 states that vote in 2027, such as Lagos and Oyo.
- Senate, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly contests.
- Wider questions about the vote itself, such as whether turnout will beat 2023.
The hub also shows state-by-state forecasts, public polls, headlines from Nigerian newspapers and a live feed of what other traders are buying right now. You can watch where the crowd is putting its money before you decide where to put yours.
Can You Make Money?
You can, but it is not guaranteed. If you buy a share and your outcome happens, the share pays out. If you buy a share and it does not, you lose what you put in on that position.
The price you pay is what matters most. A candidate the crowd rates at 10% costs far less than one rated at 70%, and the cheaper share pays more if it wins, because the outcome was less likely. You make money over time by spotting where the crowd is wrong, and by selling before an event when your share has risen in value.
Prices are estimates made by a crowd. They are not advice, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
Is This Different from Betting?
Both involve risk, so people think they are the same. However, the mechanics differ in three ways that matter.
First, no bookmaker sets the odds. The price comes from what traders are willing to pay each other, so it moves with opinion instead of with a house’s margin.
Second, you can leave early. If you buy a share at ₦30 and it climbs to ₦55, you can sell without waiting for the election to happen.
Third, every market settles against a public source, and for elections that source is INEC’s official declaration. Nobody at Bayse decides who wins.
Prediction markets reward people who follow politics closely and read the news carefully. That is a different skill from picking a team on matchday.
Getting Started Takes a Few Minutes
You can sign up on the Bayse website or download the app for iOS or Android. Registration needs only an email address or a Nigerian phone number, and you verify your identity when you want to withdraw. After that, you fund your wallet, open an election market and choose Yes or No.
If you want to see how a first trade looks, the beginner’s guide to making a prediction walks through each step. You can also read the politics FAQs to learn how results are checked and how markets settle.
Make Your Call before the Ballot
Nigeria votes in January, and the markets are open now. Visit the Bayse Election Hub, sign up on the website or download the app, and trade the election you have been talking about all year.