Key Takeaways
- Adekanmbi (APM) leads at 47%. Alli (APC) follows at 35%.
- Adekanmbi has Makinde’s endorsement and much of his structure.
- Alli has federal backing and the Ibadan base.
- Makinde won 31 of 33 local governments in 2023. That result belonged to him, not just a party logo.
- A winner needs 25% in 22 of 33 local governments.
- Polling day is 6 February 2027.
Bimbo Adekanmbi of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) is the narrow favourite to win the 2027 Oyo governorship election. The Bayse market priced him at 47% on 10 November 2026. Sharafadeen Alli of the APC sat at 35%.
That is a 12-point gap in a two-way race. It is not a landslide call. Polling day is 6 February 2027. This guide covers who is running, what each side has going for it, and what the numbers from 2023 really tell us. Browse every live race on the 2027 elections hub and make your own predictions.
The Two Main Candidates
INEC cleared 16 candidates for Oyo, but only two are dominating the conversation.
Bimbo Adekanmbi (APM). He is a former state finance commissioner. Governor Seyi Makinde named him his preferred successor and framed the campaign as a continuation of his own record. Makinde cannot run again, having served two terms.
Sharafadeen Alli (APC). A senator and the Ekarun Balogun of Ibadanland. He won the APC ticket after beating several aspirants, including former Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu.
Two more names appear in the market: Adelabu, who lost the primary and chose not to sue. Then, there is Speaker Adebo Ogundoyin, who sought the governorship but backed Adekanmbi afterwards. Their market prices are low for good reason.
Take your side on the Oyo governorship market on Bayse now.
Why Adekanmbi is Leading
Makinde’s record and machine. Makinde won in 2023 with 563,756 votes and took 31 of 33 local governments. He is a two-term governor with a base to hand over.
The defectors. Many of Makinde’s allies, appointees, and lawmakers moved to the APM with him. That brought the working structure of the state government along in one single move.
Incumbency in everything but name. Adekanmbi’s pitch is “more of the same, delivered.” In a state where the governor is popular, that is a strong line.
Why Alli Can Still Win
- Federal power. The APC controls the presidency. In Nigerian elections, that matters.
- The Ibadan base. Ibadan holds a large share of Oyo’s voters. Alli is a senior Ibadan chieftain, and Ibadan politicians are known to lean on the city’s voting strength.
- A new party for the other side. Voters knew Makinde on the PDP ballot. Adekanmbi, on the other hand, runs on the APM; a less familiar logo, which is a real hurdle in a state where many voters choose simply by symbol.
- Confusion on the PDP side. INEC listed a separate PDP candidate, Gbolarumi Hazeem Ola. Some PDP stakeholders also objected to Adekanmbi’s selection. Any split in the old PDP base helps Alli.
- Reconciliation. Four defeated APC aspirants pledged support to Alli. Adelabu did not attend, though.
The 2023 Numbers and What They Tell Us
| Candidate | Party | Votes |
| Seyi Makinde | PDP | 563,756 |
| Teslim Folarin | APC | 256,685 |
| Adebayo Adelabu | Accord | 38,357 |
Source: TheCable.
Two lessons stand out here.
First, the winning margin was 307,071 votes. It is considerably large, but those votes belonged to Makinde, the incumbent, not to a party label. Adekanmbi has to earn them as a newcomer.
Second, turnout was low. Only 874,672 valid votes came from 3,276,675 registered voters. This means that whoever moves the missing voters in this coming election wins the next race.
How is the Winner Chosen?
A governorship winner needs the highest number of votes. The candidate must also win at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of the state’s local governments. Oyo has 33, so that means 22.
Broad spread beats raw Ibadan volume. Alli’s Ibadan strength will not be enough on its own. At the same time, Adekanmbi needs rural and Oke-Ogun support too.
What the 47% Price Really Means
Forty-seven percent is not a majority. It says the crowd sees Adekanmbi winning less than half the time. It also says Alli has a real path, just a narrower one.
Treat the price as an early read. At the snapshot above, the market had 60 trades and about ₦801,000 in volume. This shows that small markets move quickly. New information will shift this price, possibly by a lot.
If you want to learn how those numbers form, see how market pricing works on Bayse. It’s only a few minutes’ read.
What Could Change the Picture?
- Makinde’s presidential campaign. He is the APM’s presidential candidate. A strong or weak national showing could rub off on his successor.
- The 16 January presidential vote. Results in Oyo will land three weeks before the governorship election.
- Defections. Makinde has welcomed APC defectors. More movement in either direction would shift confidence.
- PDP-APM friction. Court or INEC action over the PDP candidacy could matter.
- Turnout. The 2023 turnout was low. A jump would add uncertainty.
FAQ
Who is the favourite to win the 2027 Oyo governorship election?
Bimbo Adekanmbi of the APM, at 47% on Bayse on 10 November 2026.
Who is Makinde backing?
Adekanmbi, his former finance commissioner.
Who is the APC candidate?
Senator Sharafadeen Alli, the Ekarun Balogun of Ibadanland.
Can Alli beat Adekanmbi?
Yes. He has federal backing and Ibadan support. The market gives him a 35% chance.
When is the election?
6 February 2027, per INEC’s revised timetable.
How many candidates are running?
INEC listed 16 candidates.
Conclusion
Oyo is a real contest. Adekanmbi carries a popular governor’s blessing and a working political machine. Alli brings the weight of the ruling party and a strong Ibadan base. Neither side can relax.
If you see something the market misses, act on it. Take your side on the Oyo governorship market. New here? Read the guide to making a prediction, check the politics FAQs, and explore all political markets.